顶刊前沿 |《美国政治科学评论》2020年第2期
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政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《美国政治科学评论》2020年第2期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
American Political Science Review（美国政治科学评论）是美国政治学会旗下最知名的期刊，创刊于1906年并由剑桥大学出版社出版，是政治学最早和最具权威的学术期刊。提供同行评审的文章和评论整个学科子领域的论文。2018年的影响因子为3.895，在176种政治科学类期刊中排名第7。
期刊涉及领域包括：政治学理论、美国政治、公共政策、公共行政、比较政治和国际关系等。
PART 2
期刊目录
Social Isolation and Repertoires of Resistance
社会隔离与抵抗方式
Outside the Wire: U.S. Military Deployments and Public Opinion in Host States
铁丝网之外：美国在东道国的军事部署和民意
Why Arms Control Is So Rare
为什么军备控制如此罕见
When the Whole Is Greater than the Sum of Its Parts: On the Conceptualization and Measurement of Populist Attitudes and Other Multidimensional Constructs
当整体优于部分之和：对民粹主义态度和其他多维度结构的概念化和测量
The Commensurability Problem: Conceptual Difficulties in Estimating the Effect of Behavior on Behavior
可通约性问题：评估行为对行为影响的概念困难
Democracy in America? Partisanship, Polarization, and the Robustness of Support for Democracy in the United States
美国的民主？美国的党派主义、两极分化与对民主支持的稳健性
Reducing Exclusionary Attitudes through Interpersonal Conversation: Evidence from Three Field Experiments
通过人际对话减轻排他性态度：来自三个实地实验的证据
The Desire for Social Status and Economic Conservatism among Affluent Americans
美国富裕阶层对社会地位的渴望与经济保守主义的态度
The Geography of Inequality: How Land Use Regulation Produces Segregation
不平等的地理分布：土地使用规定如何导致种族隔离
One Person, One Vote: Estimating the Prevalence of Double Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections
一人一票：估算美国总统选举中双重投票现象的普遍性
Who Votes More Strategically?
谁的投票更具策略性？
Social Network Structures and the Politics of Public Goods Provision: Evidence from the Philippines
社会网络结构与公共物品供给中的政治：以菲律宾为例
Origins of Early Democracy
早期民主的起源
From Islamists to Muslim Democrats: The Case of Tunisia’s Ennahda
从伊斯兰主义者到穆斯林民主人士：对突尼斯复兴运动党（Ennahda）案例的研究
Relational State Building in Areas of Limited Statehood: Experimental Evidence on the Attitudes of the Police
有限国家地位区域的国家关系建设：关于对待警察态度的实验性证据
Killing in the Slums: Social Order, Criminal Governance, and Police Violence in Rio de Janeiro
在贫民窟中的杀戮：里约热内卢的社会秩序，犯罪治理与警察暴力
Legacies of the Third Reich: Concentration Camps and Out-group Intolerance
第三帝国的遗产：集中营与群体外不宽容
Independent Agencies, Distribution, and Legitimacy: The Case of Central Banks
独立机构，分配，与合法性：以中央银行为例
Does Trust in Government Increase Support for Redistribution? Evidence from Randomized Survey Experiments
对政府的信任会增加对再分配的支持吗？——来自随机调查实验的证据
Measuring the Influence of Political Actors on the Federal Budget
衡量政治行为体对联邦预算的影响
Human Capital and Voting Behavior across Generations: Evidence from an Income Intervention
世代间的人力资本和投票行为：来自收入干预的证据
PART 3
精选译文
01 社会隔离与抵抗方式
【题目】
Social Isolation and Repertoires of Resistance
【作者】
Emily Kalah Gade, Emory University
【摘要】
地处约旦河西岸的希伯伦省检查站代表着以色列对巴勒斯坦平民始终存在的控制权力。本文根据在2015年个人抵抗运动期间进行的71次访谈，归纳性地建立了关于社会隔离与不同抵抗方式之间关系的理论。检查站并非在强迫平民服从国家，而是改变了抵抗的性质和结构。作者认为，检查站为当地平民构建起了社会联系。阻碍社会联系的检查站会让人产生绝望感，并助长民众对通常是暴力形式的个人抵抗行为的支持。在检查站将社区作为一个整体隔离但并未破坏其内部社会联系的地区，公民仍保留着对变革可能性的希望，这强化了集体抵抗的倾向。本文指出了检查站对平民造成的负面影响，并强调了压迫性的国家权力是如何在限制某些抵抗方式时反而引发了民众对于其他抵抗方式的支持。
Checkpoints in the West Bank’s Hebron Governorate represent Israel’s ever-present power over Palestinian civilians. Drawing on 71 interviews conducted during the Intifada of Individuals (2015), this article inductively builds theory about the relationship between social isolation and different modalities of resistance. Rather than forcing civilians to comply with the state, checkpoint apparatus instead change the nature and texture of resistance. I suggest that checkpoints structure social connections for civilians on the ground. Checkpoint apparatus which inhibit social connection engender a feeling of hopelessness and foster support for individual, often violent, resistance. Where checkpoints isolate a community as a whole but did not disrupt within-community social connections, citizens maintain hope for the possibility of change, which facilitates a preference for collective resistance. This article identifies troubling consequences checkpoints have on civilians and highlights how oppressive state power can limit some modalities of resistance only to engender support for others.
02 铁丝网之外：美国在东道国的军事部署和民意
【题目】
Outside the Wire: U.S. Military Deployments and Public Opinion in Host States
【作者】
Michael A. Allen, Boise State University
Michael E. Flynn, Kansas State University
Carla Martinez Machain, Kansas State University
Andrew Stravers, RAND Corporation
【摘要】
在驻扎美国军事人员的东道国，其公民如何看待这种存在？利用来自14个国家的最新跨国调查数据，本文研究了以不同形式接触美国军事存在是如何影响到了这些东道国公民对美国军事、政府和民众的态度。作者发现，接触美国军事人员或从美国的军事存在中获得经济收益，和东道国公民对美国军事存在、民众和政府的更强支持存在着相关性。这项研究对理解美国军事设施在影响东道国社会结构方面所起的作用，以及美国在境外开展军事活动的政策影响具有深远的意义。
How do citizens within countries hosting U.S. military personnel view that presence? Using new cross-national survey data from 14 countries, we examine how different forms of exposure to a U.S. military presence in a country affect attitudes toward the U.S. military, government, and people. We find that contact with U.S. military personnel or the receipt of economic benefits from the U.S. presence correlates with stronger support for the U.S. presence, people, and government. This study has profound implications for the role that U.S. installations play in affecting the social fabric of host nations and policy implications for the conduct of U.S. military activities outside the United States.
03 为什么军备控制如此罕见？
【题目】
Why Arms Control Is So Rare？
【作者】
Andrew J. Coe, Vanderbilt University
Jane Vaynman, Temple University
【摘要】
军备令人困惑的原因和战争一样：它所产生的结果可以通过谈判来实现，而并不需要将昂贵的资源投入到武器装备上来。尽管如此，军备控制在历史上是极其罕见的，因此军备无处不在，让人类付出了巨大的代价。作者发展并检验了一个理论，以解释为什么军备如此普遍，而军备控制如此罕见。军备控制的主要障碍是需要监督来使一个国家的武器装备有足够的透明度，以确保其遵守规定，但又不至于威胁其安全。作者提出的证据表明，这种权衡在三种不同的情况下破坏了军备控制。它们分别是海湾战争后伊拉克的武器计划，两次世界大战期间的大国军备竞赛，以及冷战期间的超级大国的军事竞争。这些军备竞赛几乎占到过去两个世纪里全球所有军备的40%。
Arming is puzzling for the same reason war is: it produces outcomes that could instead be realized through negotiation, without the costly diversion of resources arming entails. Despite this, arms control is exceedingly rare historically, so that arming is ubiquitous and its costs to humanity are large. We develop and test a theory that explains why arming is so common and its control so rare. The main impediment to arms control is the need for monitoring that renders a state’s arming transparent enough to assure its compliance but not so much as to threaten its security. We present evidence that this trade-off has undermined arms control in three diverse contexts: Iraq’s weapons programs after the Gulf War, great power competition in arms in the interwar period, and superpower military rivalry during the Cold War. These arms races account for almost 40% of all global arming in the past two centuries.
04 当整体优于部分之和：对民粹主义态度和其他多维度结构的概念化和测量
【题目】
When the Whole Is Greater than the Sum of Its Parts: On the Conceptualization and Measurement of Populist Attitudes and Other Multidimensional Constructs
【作者】
Alexander Wuttke, University of Mannheim
Christian Schimpf, University of Mannheim
Harald Schoen, University of Mannheim
【摘要】
当一个组成部分的较高值不能抵消另一个组成部分的较低值时，多维度概念就是非补偿性的。将一个多维度现象的组成部分视为非补偿性而不是可替代性的，这在概念上和经验上都会产生广泛的影响。为了证明这一点，作者重点关注在当代有关自由民主的辩论中尤为突出的民粹主义态度问题。鉴于类似的既定民意结构，民粹主义态度的概念价值取决于其作为一种综合态度的独特规范，其特征是它非补偿性的子维度概念的同时存在。然而在现有的实证研究中，这一概念特征却很少被考量。作者提出了一种操作策略，以寻求恰当处理非补偿性多维度概念的独特特征。来自12个国家的5个民粹主义量表的证据揭示了民粹主义测量与概念不一致的现状和后果。重要的是，在某些情况下，使用概念上合理的操作化策略会颠覆以前关于民粹主义态度的实质性作用的研究结果。
Multidimensional concepts are non-compensatory when higher values on one component cannot offset lower values on another. Thinking of the components of a multidimensional phenomenon as non-compensatory rather than substitutable can have wide-ranging implications, both conceptually and empirically. To demonstrate this point, we focus on populist attitudes that feature prominently in contemporary debates about liberal democracy. Given similar established public opinion constructs, the conceptual value of populist attitudes hinges on its unique specification as an attitudinal syndrome, which is characterized by the concurrent presence of its non-compensatory concept subdimensions. Yet this concept attribute is rarely considered in existing empirical research. We propose operationalization strategies that seek to take the distinct properties of non-compensatory multidimensional concepts seriously. Evidence on five populism scales in 12 countries reveals the presence and consequences of measurement-concept inconsistencies. Importantly, in some cases, using conceptually sound operationalization strategies upsets previous findings on the substantive role of populist attitudes.
05 可通约性问题：评估行为对行为影响的概念困难
【题目】
The Commensurability Problem: Conceptual Difficulties in Estimating the Effect of Behavior on Behavior
【作者】
Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, University of Chicago
Scott A. Tyson, University of Rochester
【摘要】
作者提出了可通约性问题：实际研究设计产生的估计值与理论数值在何时能够相符合？作者通过将干预项和结果项都设定为行为，并且把干预效应的值分解为直接渠道和信息渠道两部分来研究这个问题。作者得出了两个结果：首先，只有当研究设计中的干预项是对决策者信息的充分统计时，实际研究设计里所得的估值才可能和理想性实验中的总效果相符合。其次，如果以下两个条件成立，那么与非理想实验对应的研究设计仅仅是隔离了理想性实验中的直接效应。条件一是非理想实验中不存在信息效应，条件二是决策者的响应函数在干预和信息上是加性可分的。本文将得到的结果应用到了以下三类实际研究中：抗议的效果、对女性候选人的赋权以及反叛乱活动中的滥用暴力。
We pose the commensurability problem: When do the estimates generated by actual research designs correspond to quantities of theoretical interest? We study this question in settings where both treatment and outcome are behavior and the treatment effect of interest is decomposable into direct and informational channels. We establish two results. First, the quantity estimated by an actual research design is only commensurate with the total effect in the ideal experiment if treatment status in the research design is a sufficient statistic for the decision-makers’ information. Second, a research design corresponding to a nonideal experiment isolates just the direct effect in the ideal experiment if two conditions hold: (i) there is no information effect in the nonideal experiment and (ii) the decision-maker’s response function is additively separable in treatment and information. We apply our results to three substantive literatures: the efficacy of protest, the empowerment of female candidates, and indiscriminate violence in counterinsurgency.
06 美国的民主？美国的党派主义、两极分化与对民主支持的稳健性
【题目】
Democracy in America? Partisanship, Polarization, and the Robustness of Support for Democracy in the United States
【作者】
Matthew H. Graham, Yale University
Milan W. Svolik, Yale University
【摘要】
美国对民主的支持是否足够强大到可以阻止当选政客的不民主行为？作者开发了一个作为民主制衡的公众模型，并使用两种实证策略进行评估：一个是原创的、全国范围内的的候选人选择实验，在这个实验中，一些政客为了当选而违背了民主的核心原则；另一个是发生在2017年蒙大拿州美国众议院特别选举期间的自然实验。本文的研究设计可以推断出美国人是否愿意用民主原则来交换其他有效但可能冲突的考虑因素，如政治意识形态、党派忠诚度和政策偏好。作者发现美国民众在民主制衡上的能力非常有限：只有一小部分美国人在他们的选举选择中优先考虑民主原则，并且他们这样做的倾向在几个衡量两极化的指标中都在下降，这几个指标包括党派性的强度、政策的极端性和候选人平台的分化程度。本文的研究结果呼应了有关政治温和以及交叉分歧对民主稳定的重要作用的经典论点，并强调了两极化对民主造成的危害。
Is support for democracy in the United States robust enough to deter undemocratic behavior by elected politicians? We develop a model of the public as a democratic check and evaluate it using two empirical strategies: an original, nationally representative candidate-choice experiment in which some politicians take positions that violate key democratic principles, and a natural experiment that occurred during Montana’s 2017 special election for the U.S. House. Our research design allows us to infer Americans’ willingness to trade-off democratic principles for other valid but potentially conflicting considerations such as political ideology, partisan loyalty, and policy preferences. We find the U.S. public’s viability as a democratic check to be strikingly limited: only a small fraction of Americans prioritize democratic principles in their electoral choices, and their tendency to do so is decreasing in several measures of polarization, including the strength of partisanship, policy extremism, and candidate platform divergence. Our findings echo classic arguments about the importance of political moderation and cross-cutting cleavages for democratic stability and highlight the dangers that polarization represents for democracy.
07 通过人际对话减轻排他性态度：来自三个实地实验的证据
【题目】
Reducing Exclusionary Attitudes through Interpersonal Conversation: Evidence from Three Field Experiments
【作者】
Joshua L. Kalla, Yale University
David E. Broockman, University of California, Berkeley
【摘要】
排他性态度，即对外来群体的偏见和对促进其福祉的政策的反对，正在对全世界的民主社会构成挑战。根据心理学上的观点，作者认为人际对话中的非评判性交换叙述可以促进排他性态度的持续减轻。作者用三个预先登记过的实地实验的证据来支持这一论点，这些实验调查人们对未经许可的移民和变性人群体的排他性态度。在这些实验中，230名拉票员与美国7个地区的6869名选民进行了交谈。在实验1中，仅使用论点进行的面对面对话不会对选民的排他性移民政策或偏见态度产生任何影响。但其他相同的、包含了非评判性交换叙述的对话，则至少在四个月内有效地减轻了选民的排他性态度（d 5 0.08）。针对跨性别恐惧症的实验2和3再现了这些结果，并支持这种策略的可扩展性（ds 5 0.08，0.04）。非评判性交换叙述有助于克服人们在讨论这些有争议的话题时经常遭遇的劝说阻力。
Exclusionary attitudes—prejudice toward outgroups and opposition to policies that promote their well-being—are presenting challenges to democratic societies worldwide. Drawing on insights from psychology, we argue that non-judgmentally exchanging narratives in interpersonal conversations can facilitate durable reductions in exclusionary attitudes. We support this argument with evidence from three pre-registered field experiments targeting exclusionary attitudes toward unauthorized immigrants and transgender people. In these experiments, 230 canvassers conversed with 6,869 voters across 7 US locations. In Experiment 1, face-to-face conversations deploying arguments alone had no effects on voters’ exclusionary immigration policy or prejudicial attitudes, but otherwise identical conversations also including the non-judgmental exchange of narratives durably reduced exclusionary attitudes for at least four months (d 5 0.08). Experiments 2 and 3, targeting transphobia, replicate these findings and support the scalability of this strategy (ds 5 0.08, 0.04). Non-judgmentally exchanging narratives can help overcome the resistance to persuasion often encountered in discussions of these contentious topics.
08 美国富裕阶层对社会地位的渴望与经济保守主义的态度
【题目】
The Desire for Social Status and Economic Conservatism among Affluent Americans
【作者】
Adam Thal, Yale University
【摘要】
美国的富裕阶层对决策制定拥有着不成比例的影响力，经常利用他们的权力来推进加剧不平等的保守经济政策。本文表明，这种行为部分上是由美国富裕阶层对社会地位的渴望驱动的。首先，作者使用了一个新的调查量表来表明，美国富裕阶层对社会地位的渴望强烈预示着他们的经济保守主义程度。其次，作者在社交媒体上实验性地检测了本文的理论。在Facebook、Instagram和Twitter等社交媒体上，美国富裕阶层通过分享精挑细选的生活细节来彰显上流社会的生活方式，从而竞争社会地位。当作者随机分配美国富裕阶层来体验这种社会地位的竞争时，这导致他们在经济上态度变得更加保守。本文的研究结果有助于我们理解美国富裕阶层中经济保守主义的社会和心理根源，并首次提供证据表明社交媒体助长了导致不平等的政治行为。
Affluent Americans have disproportionate influence over policymaking and often use their power to advance conservative economic policies that increase inequality. I show that this behavior is partially driven by affluent Americans’ desire for social status. First, I use a new survey scale to show that affluent Americans’ desire for social status strongly predicts their level of economic conservatism. Second, I test my theory experimentally in the context of social media. On sites like Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter, affluent Americans compete for social status by sharing curated versions of their lives that highlight their upper-class lifestyle. When I randomly assign affluent Americans to experience this status competition, it causes them to become more economically conservative. The results help us understand the social and psychological origins of economic conservatism among affluent Americans, and provide the first evidence that social media encourages political behaviors that are conducive to inequality.
09 不平等的地理分布：土地使用规定如何导致种族隔离
【题目】
The Geography of Inequality: How Land Use Regulation Produces Segregation
【作者】
Jessica Trounstine, University of California, Merced
【摘要】
美国的公共物品主要由地方政府提供资金和服务。地方公共物品很有价值，但其生产需要克服几个集体行动问题，包括协调供应和尽最大程度地减少拥挤、搭便车和同群效应。地方政府颁布的土地使用规定使社区能够解决供给地方公共产品和维护财产价值间所固有的集体行动问题。这些努力的一个结果是，城市之间出现了按种族划分的居住隔离。作者提供的证据表明，更严格的土地使用规定得到了白人社区的支持，并且这维护了种族的同质性。首先，本文表明，在1970年时比大都市地区更“白”的城市，在2006年更有可能具有限制性的土地使用模式。其次，根据依靠联邦《公平住房法》的诉讼所产生的土地使用政策的变化，本文表明限制性的土地使用有助于解释大都市地区随时间推移一直存在的隔离模式。最后，本文利用加州几个城市选区一级的倡议选举表明，白人社区更支持限制性的发展。这些结果有力地表明，即使是表面上不分种族的土地使用规定也助长了种族隔离。
Public goods in the United States are largely funded and delivered at the local level. Local public goods are valuable, but their production requires overcoming several collective action problems including coordinating supply and minimizing congestion, free-riding, and peer effects. Land use regulations, promulgated by local governments, allow communities to solve the collective action problems inherent in the provision of local public goods and maintenance of property values. A consequence of these efforts is residential segregation between cities along racial lines. I provide evidence that more stringent land use regulations are supported by whiter communities and that they preserve racial homogeneity. First, I show that cities that were whiter than their metropolitan area in 1970 are more likely to have restrictive land use patterns in 2006. Then, relying on Federal Fair Housing Act lawsuits to generate changes in land use policy, I show that restrictive land use helps to explain metropolitan area segregation patterns over time. Finally, I draw on precinct level initiative elections from several California cities to show that whiter neighborhoods are more supportive of restricting development. These results strongly suggest that even facially race-neutral land use policies have contributed to racial segregation.
10 一人一票：估算美国总统选举中双重投票现象的普遍性
【题目】
One Person, One Vote: Estimating the Prevalence of Double Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections
【作者】
Sharad Goel, Stanford University
Marc Meredith, University of Pennsylvania
Michael Morse, Harvard University
David Rothschild, Microsoft Research
Houshmand Shirani-Mehr, Stanford University
【摘要】
对选民舞弊事件的看法表明了人们是如何在选举完整性和选民可及性之间权衡的。为了更好地了解人们对双重投票率的看法，本文开发并应用了一种方法来估算在2012年美国总统选举中有多少人投了两次票。作者估计，大约每4000名选民中就有1人投了两次票，尽管审计显示，由于电子投票记录中的小错误，真实的比率可能更低。作者使用了一部分共享社会保障号码的州的数据来证实估计值并扩展分析，以更容易地量化那些可能投了两次票的人。对于这部分州，本文发现，一个减少双重投票现象的建议策略（当存在两个选民名字和出生日期都相同的投票记录时，取消登记日期较早的那一个）会导致每阻止一次双重投票，就可能消除大约300次合法投票。
Beliefs about the incidence of voter fraud inform how people view the trade-off between electoral integrity and voter accessibility. To better inform such beliefs about the rate of double voting, we develop and apply a method to estimate how many people voted twice in the 2012 presidential election. We estimate that about one in 4,000 voters cast two ballots, although an audit suggests that the true rate may be lower due to small errors in electronic vote records. We corroborate our estimates and extend our analysis using data from a subset of states that share social security numbers, making it easier to quantify who may have voted twice. For this subset of states, we find that one suggested strategy to reduce double voting—removing the registration with an earlier registration date when two share the same name and birthdate—could impede approximately 300 legitimate votes for each double vote prevented.
11 谁的投票更具策略性？
【题目】
Who Votes More Strategically?
【作者】
Andrew C. Eggers, University of Oxford
Nick Vivyan, Durham University
【摘要】
策略性投票是对整体政治现象的重要解释，但我们对不同类型选民的策略性投票有何差异知之甚少。富裕的选民是否比贫穷的选民在投票时更有策略性？策略性行为是否随年龄、教育程度、性别或政治倾向而变化？这些问题的答案对于评估一个选举制度在多大程度上代表了社会上的不同偏好有着重要意义。本文引入了一种新的方法来测量和比较不同选民的策略性投票，如果有合适的调查数据，这一方法可以得到广泛应用。在近年来的英国选举中，本文发现，虽然策略性行为不会因选民们不同的教育水平而产生差别，但年长的选民在投票时比年轻的选民表现得更有策略性，富裕选民则比贫穷选民在投票时更有策略性。受年龄和收入影响的策略性投票的差异要小于实际观察到的受年龄和收入影响的投票率差异，但这些差异往往会加剧政治参与领域较为人知的不平等现象。
Strategic voting is an important explanation for aggregate political phenomena, but we know little about how strategic voting varies across types of voters. Are richer voters more strategic than poorer voters? Does strategic behavior vary with age, education, gender, or political leaning? The answers may be important for assessing how well an electoral system represents different preferences in society. We introduce a new approach to measuring and comparing strategic voting across voters that can be broadly applied, given appropriate survey data. In recent British elections, we find that older voters vote more strategically than younger voters and that richer voters vote more strategically than poorer voters, even as strategic behavior varies little across the education level. The differences in strategic voting by age and income are smaller than observed differences in turnout by age and income, but they tend to exacerbate these better-known inequalities in political participation.
12 社会网络结构与公共物品供给中的政治：以菲律宾为例
【题目】
Social Network Structures and the Politics of Public Goods Provision: Evidence from the Philippines
【作者】
Cesi Cruz, University of British Columbia
Julien Labonne, University of Oxford
Pablo Querubín, New York University
【摘要】
我们对社会结构与提供公共物品的政治动机之间的关系进行了研究。我们认为，当政治家而非社区负责提供公共物品时，社会的分化可能会降低“精英掌控”的风险，并引起公共物品供给和选举竞争的增加。我们对来自菲律宾15,000个村庄的超过2000万人的家庭网络的大规模数据进行了分析。我们利用取名惯例来评估家庭之间的通婚联系，并使用社区检测算法来识别那些村庄中的相关氏族。我们发现，在社会网络更分化的村庄中，存在更多的公共产品供给和政治竞争，这一结果对于控制大量村庄特征和替代性估算技术具有很强的建设性。
We study the relationship between social structure and political incentives for public goods provision. We argue that when politicians—rather than communities—are responsible for the provision of public goods, social fractionalization may decrease the risk of elite capture and lead to increased public goods provision and electoral competition. We test this using large-scale data on family networks from over 20 million individuals in 15,000 villages of the Philippines. We take advantage of naming conventions to assess intermarriage links between families and use community detection algorithms to identify the relevant clans in those villages. We show that there is more public goods provision and political competition in villages with more fragmented social networks, a result that is robust to controlling for a large number of village characteristics and to alternative estimation techniques.
13 早期民主的起源
【题目】
Origins of Early Democracy
【作者】
Ali Tanveer Ahmed, New York University
David Stasavage, New York University
【摘要】
统治者在制定政策之前必须征得同意的想法对民主至关重要。我们提出，这种做法在人类社会中很大一部分是独立发展的，在这些社会中，管理者与理事会共同参与统治。我们认为，当信息不对称使统治者更难获得收益时，理事会治理更有可能出现，对此我们用理论模型进行了说明。让公众在治理中发挥作用成为克服信息问题的一种手段。我们通过检查标准跨文化样本中农业适宜性的地区差异与议会治理的存在之间的相关性来检验该假设。作为进一步的步骤，我们建议面临严重信息不对称的管理者也可以采用另一种资源获取途径—建立一个官僚机构来衡量生产率的变化。进一步的经验结果表明，官僚统治可以代替理事会共同统治。
The idea that rulers must seek consent before making policy is key to democracy. We suggest that this practice evolved independently in a large fraction of human societies where executives ruled jointly with councils. We argue that council governance was more likely to emerge when information asymmetries made it harder for rulers to extract revenue, and we illustrate this with a theoretical model. Giving the population a role in governance became one means of overcoming the information problem. We test this hypothesis by examining the correlation between localized variation in agricultural suitability and the presence of council governance in the Standard Cross Cultural Sample. As a further step, we suggest that executives facing substantial information asymmetries could also have an alternative route for resource extraction—develop a bureaucracy to measure variation in productivity. Further empirical results suggest that rule by bureaucracy could substitute for shared rule with a council.
14 从伊斯兰主义者到穆斯林民主人士：对突尼斯复兴运动党（Ennahda）案例的研究
【题目】
From Islamists to Muslim Democrats: The Case of Tunisia’s Ennahda
【作者】
Sharan Grewal, College of William & Mary
【摘要】
是什么促使一些伊斯兰主义者成为“穆斯林民主主义者”，变得对宗教轻描淡写并接受世俗民主？本文假设意识形态变化的一个渠道是向世俗民主的迁移。通过对突尼斯伊斯兰复兴运动党的议会投票进行理想点分析，我发现生活在世俗民主国家的议员比仅生活在突尼斯的议员拥有更多的自由投票记录。特别是，他们更有可能捍卫道德自由并投票反对将伊斯兰法律载入宪法。对其中几位国会议员的访谈表明，他们认识到国外经历对其意识形态的塑造有因果关系，并为可能产生这种影响的三种不同机制提供了支持：社会化，群体间接触和政治学习。
What drives some Islamists to become “Muslim Democrats,” downplaying religion and accepting secular democracy? This article hypothesizes that one channel of ideological change is migration to secular democracies. Drawing on an ideal point analysis of parliamentary votes from the Tunisian Islamist movement Ennahda, I find that MPs who had lived in secular democracies held more liberal voting records than their counterparts who had lived only in Tunisia. In particular, they were more likely to defend freedom of conscience and to vote against enshrining Islamic law in the constitution. Interviews with several of these MPs demonstrate that they recognize a causal effect of their experiences abroad on their ideologies, and provide support for three distinct mechanisms by which this effect may have occurred: socialization, intergroup contact, and political learning.
15 有限国家地位区域的国家关系建设：关于对待警察态度的实验性证据
【题目】
Relational State Building in Areas of Limited Statehood: Experimental Evidence on the Attitudes of the Police
【作者】
Sabrina Karim, Cornell University
【摘要】
在何种条件下，将国家扩张到有限国家地位区域能够对国家权威带来认知改善？尽管前人的研究强调了国家合法性的身份及制度来源，但作者认为，国家代理人与公民之间的关系有助于推动积极态度的形成，因为这种关系能提供信息并强化社会纽带。此外，当国家代理人和公民具有共同的人口特征时，可能改善知觉效果。最后，当公民发现国家代理人与公民之间存在程序上的不公平互动时，可能会对国家产生消极看法。作者通过对利比里亚农村男女警察的随机家庭探访进行分析，来检验这三个命题。这些访问促进了人际关系的建立，提升了对警察的认识；而警察和公民之间共有的人口特征却并没有增强这种效果。同时，对随机化的不公平感导致了公民对警察的负面意见。结果表明，国家代理人与公民之间的关系建立是国家建设的重要组成部分。
Under what conditions does state expansion into limited statehood areas improve perceptions of state authority? Although previous work emphasizes identity or institutional sources of state legitimacy, I argue that relationships between state agents and citizens drive positive attitude formation, because these relationships provide information and facilitate social bonds. Moreover, when state agents and citizens share demographic characteristics, perceptional effects may improve. Finally, citizens finding procedural interactions between state agents and citizens unfair may adopt negative views about the state. I test these three propositions by randomizing household visits by male or female police officers in rural Liberia. These visits facilitated relationship building, leading to improved perceptions of police; shared demographic characteristics between police and citizens did not strengthen this effect. Perceptions of unfairness in the randomization led to negative opinions about police. The results imply that relationship building between state agents and citizens is an important part of state building.
16 在贫民窟中的杀戮：里约热内卢的社会秩序，犯罪治理与警察暴力
【题目】
Killing in the Slums: Social Order, Criminal Governance, and Police Violence in Rio de Janeiro
【作者】
Beatriz Magaloni, Stanford University
Edgar Franco Vivanco, University of Michigan
Vanessa Melo, Stanford University
【摘要】
国家对有组织犯罪集团（OCGs）的干预有时能够改善安全状况，但通常会加剧暴力。为了解其原因，本文提供了一种与五类犯罪类型有关的犯罪治理理论，这五类分别是：叛乱、强盗、共生、掠夺和分裂。它们的区别在于犯罪集团与国家行为者是对立还是串通，与社区之间是虐待还是合作，与敌对的犯罪集团是参与垄断还是争夺领土。警察对这些犯罪类型的干预面临着不同的挑战，并且带来了截然不同的当地治安成果。本文通过使用多方法研究设计，结合准实验统计分析，自动文本分析，广泛定性研究以及对里约热内卢“安抚警察部队”（UPPs）进行的大规模调查，为该理论提供依据。并试图从犯罪组织那里收回对贫民窟的控制。
State interventions against organized criminal groups (OCGs) sometimes work to improve security, but often exacerbate violence. To understand why, this article offers a theory about criminal governance in five types of criminal regimes—Insurgent, Bandit, Symbiotic, Predatory, and Split. These differ according to whether criminal groups confront or collude with state actors, abuse or cooperate with the community, and hold a monopoly or contest territory with rival OCGs. Police interventions in these criminal regimes pose different challenges and are associated with markedly different local security outcomes. We provide evidence of this theory by using a multimethod research design combining quasi-experimental statistical analyses, automated text analysis, extensive qualitative research, and a large-N survey in the context of Rio de Janeiro’s “Pacifying Police Units” (UPPs), which sought to reclaim control of the favelas from criminal organizations.
17 第三帝国的遗产：集中营与群体外不宽容
【题目】
Legacies of the Third Reich: Concentration Camps and Out-group Intolerance
【作者】
Jonathan Homola, Rice University
Miguel Maria Pereira, Washington University in St. Louis
Margit Tavits, Washington University in St. Louis
【摘要】
我们探讨了第三帝国的长期政治后果，并表明当前的政治不容忍，仇外心理和对激进右翼政党的投票行为与和德国前纳粹集中营的接触有关。这种联系并不能通过民众当前的态度，集中营的位置，地域划分，集中营的经济影响或其当前用途来解释。我们认为，认知失调导致那些更直接接触纳粹制度的人与该政权的信仰体系保持一致。这些态度随后传给了几代人。本文提供的论据有助于我们理解历史制度的遗产以及政治不容忍的根源。
We explore the long-term political consequences of the Third Reich and show that current political intolerance, xenophobia, and voting for radical right-wing parties are associated with proximity to former Nazi concentration camps in Germany. This relationship is not explained by contemporary attitudes, the location of the camps, geographic sorting, the economic impact of the camps, or their current use. We argue that cognitive dissonance led those more directly exposed to Nazi institutions to conform with the belief system of the regime. These attitudes were then transmitted across generations. The evidence provided here contributes both to our understanding of the legacies of historical institutions and the sources of political intolerance.
18 独立机构，分配，与合法性：以中央银行为例
【题目】
Independent Agencies, Distribution, and Legitimacy: The Case of Central Banks
【作者】
Peter Dietsch, Université de Montréal
【摘要】
对独立机构进行授权可以从政策制定中获得真正的好处。就货币政策而言，它增强了中央银行的信誉。但是，必须对独立机构的判定加以约束，以确保机构对合法性。本文关注其中一个潜在的约束，即“独立机构不应在分配权衡方面做出选择“的观点。鉴于当今货币政策会对分配产生重大影响，如要遵守这一限制，则必须废除中央银行的独立性。这一操作与货币政策的分配结果不受审查一样，是我们不希望看到的。相反，本文鼓励寻找替代解决方案，并提出了三种可能的制度安排，以协调货币政策的分配结果与中央银行合法性二者之间的紧张关系。
Delegation to independent agencies can reap real benefits for policy-making. In the case of monetary policy, it shores up the credibility of the central bank. However, the discretion of IAs needs to be constrained to ensure their legitimacy. This letter focuses on one potential constraint, namely, the idea that IAs should not make choices on distributional trade-offs. Given that monetary policy today has significant distributive consequences, if this constraint were respected, the independence of central banks would have to be repealed. This would be just as undesirable as a monetary policy whose distributive consequences remain unchecked. Instead, this letter encourages the search for alternative solutions and puts forward three possible institutional arrangements to manage the tension between the distributive consequences of monetary policy on the one hand and central bank legitimacy on the other.
19 对政府的信任会增加对再分配的支持吗？——来自随机调查实验的证据
【题目】
Does Trust in Government Increase Support for Redistribution? Evidence from Randomized Survey Experiments
【作者】
Kyle Peyton, Yale Law School
【摘要】
为什么美国数十年来不断加剧的高度不平等现象没有增加公众对再分配的支持？政治学的一个既定理论认为，美国人对政府的不信任会降低他们对再分配的支持，但是经验性依据主要来自于对国家调查的回归分析。作者讨论了对回归模型进行识别所需要的不可检验的假设，并提出了一种替代设计，该设计使用有关政治腐败的随机实验来确定在较弱假设下，对政府的信任如何影响对再分配的支持。作者将其应用到三个调查实验中，并估计了大量的，实验性的政治信任的增加对再分配支持的影响。与理论预测相反，估算的效果在本质上可以忽略不计，在统计学上与零没有区别，并且与两个安慰剂实验的估计值相当。作者讨论了在不平等加剧和对政府信心下降的时代，对支持再分配的原因进行理论构建的意义。
Why have decades of high and rising inequality in the United States not increased public support for redistribution? An established theory in political science holds that Americans’ distrust of government decreases their support for redistribution, but empirical support draws primarily on regression analyses of national surveys. I discuss the untestable assumptions required for identification with regression modeling and propose an alternative design that uses randomized experiments about political corruption to identify the effect of trust in government on support for redistribution under weaker assumptions. I apply this to three survey experiments and estimate the effects that large, experimentally induced increases in political trust have on support for redistribution. Contrary to theoretical predictions, estimated effects are substantively negligible, statistically indistinguishable from zero, and comparable to estimates from two placebo experiments. I discuss implications for theory building about causes of support for redistribution in an era of rising inequality and eroding confidence in government.
20 衡量政治行为体对联邦预算的影响
【题目】
Measuring the Influence of Political Actors on the Federal Budget
【作者】
Benjamin Hammond, Princeton University
Leah Rosenstiel, Princeton University
【摘要】
在评估联邦预算的政治决定因素时，学者们面临着使用经费指标还是支出指标作为他们考察目标的选择。我们研究了这种选择的后果。特别指出的是，我们认为支出结果可能无法很好地检验学者试图回答的研究问题，因为支出数据会受到竞争性预算影响，是作为源头的拨款的下游指标，并会导致计算错误。为检验我们的观点，我们将近期研究中使用的支出数据（Berry和Fowler 2016：美国政治政治杂志60（3）：692–708）与军事建设拨款的原始数据集进行了比较。尽管对支出数据的分析得出的结果是无效的，但使用拨款数据进行的相同分析却提供了有力的证据，表明立法者利用其委员会职位来分配利益。我们的发现对在国会和总统府文献中使用支出指标进行的研究具有广泛的意义。
When estimating the political determinants of the federal budget, scholars face a choice between using measures of funding and measures of spending as their outcome of interest. We examine the consequences of this choice. In particular, we argue that spending outcomes may serve as a poor test of the research questions scholars seek to answer, since spending data conflate competing budgetary influences, are downstream measures of the appropriations that originated them, and induce measurement error. To test our claim, we compare the spending data used in a recent study (Berry and Fowler 2016: American Journal of Political Science 60 (3): 692–708) with an original data set of military construction appropriations. While an analysis of the spending data produces a null result, the same analysis using the appropriations data provides strong evidence that legislators use their committee positions to distribute pork. Our findings have broad implications for studies that use measures of spending in the congressional and presidency literatures.
21 世代间的人力资本和投票行为：来自收入干预的证据
【题目】
Human Capital and Voting Behavior across Generations: Evidence from an Income Intervention
【作者】
Randall Akee, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER
William E Copeland, Duke University Center for Developmental Epidemiology
John Holbein, University of Virginia
Emilia Simeonova, Carey School of Business, Johns Hopkins University and NBER
【摘要】
尽管有明确证据表明投票参与中的收入梯度在急剧上升，但对收入能否真正导致投票仍未有定论。在本文中，我们调查了外来收入的外生增加如何影响来自同一家庭的两代人（父母和孩子）在美国选举中的投票。与当前投票模型所做的预测相反，我们发现收入冲击对父母的投票行为没有影响。同时，我们还发现，家庭收入的增加对来自不同社会经济背景的子女一代的公民参与有不同的影响。在原本较贫穷的家庭中，收入的增加会提升孩子女的投票倾向，导致参与差距大大缩小。与主流的投票理论框架（资源模型）相比，本文的研究结果更趋向于“个体资源对投票路径的影响”这一更加细致入微的观点。投票从根本上由人力资本决定，而人力资本在公民有资格投票之前就开始了积累过程。
Despite clear evidence of a sharp income gradient in voting participation, it remains unclear whether income truly causes voting. In this article, we investigate how exogenous increases in unearned income affect voting in U.S. elections for two generations (parents and children) from the same household. In contrast to predictions made by current models of voting, we find the income shock had no effect on parents’ voting behaviors. However, we also find that increasing household income has heterogeneous effects on the civic participation of children from different socioeconomic backgrounds. It increases children’s voting propensity among those raised in initially poorer families—resulting in substantially narrowed participatory gaps. Our results are consistent with a more nuanced view of how individual resources affect patterns of voting than the dominant theoretical framework of voting—the resource model—allows. Voting is fundamentally shaped by the human capital accrued long before citizens are eligible to vote.
编 译：王泽萍 张笑吟
校 对：王泽萍 张笑吟
相关阅读：
顶刊前沿 | American Political Science Review（美国政治科学评论）Issue 1, 2020
编辑：王泽萍
一审：陈佳林
二审：袁 丁
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